NFL Pick'em Pool Strategy, Confidence Rankings: Straight-Up Picks Week 18 (2024)

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2024-01-06 20:39:23

2023 NFL Pick’em

Each week in this article, I will rank each of my selections in order of confidence and provide reasoning on all of my top picks.

If looking for any last-minute thoughts or wishful changes to these selections, make sure to join the RotoGrinders Discord and follow @CommishFilmRoom on Twitter.

NFL Week 18 Pick’Em Pool Confidence Rankings

Week 18 Selections

1. Dallas Cowboys
2. Buffalo Bills
3. Cincinnati Bengals
4. Green Bay Packers
5. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
6. Seattle Seahawks
7. Kansas City Chiefs
8. Las Vegas Raiders
9. Detroit Lions
10. Los Angeles Rams
11. Atlanta Falcons
12. New England Patriots
13. Tennessee Titans
14. New York Giants
15. Indianapolis Colts
16. Pittsburgh Steelers

NFL Pick’Em Pool Strategy Week 18

Cowboys (vs. Commanders)

The final week of the regular season brings with it a significant amount of ambiguity regarding who will play and who will sit, but the Cowboys seem to have a straightforward objective on Sunday – win and they secure the #2 seed and the NFC East division title. Dallas, needing only a win for their best-case scenario to manifest, has a favorable matchup against Washington, which has lost each of its last 7 games and 9 of their last 10 overall. Dak Prescott and company should be motivated to take care of business, making them worthy of the top overall spot in our confidence selections this weekend.

Bills (vs. Dolphins)

From Week 14 to Week 17, the Bills ranked 4th in DVOA, while the Dolphins ranked 11th. The gap in talent in this matchup is likely even larger heading into Week 18, with the Dolphins losing Bradley Chubb and (likely) Xavien Howard for the regular season finale. Miami has already lost Jerome Baker and Jaelen Phillips on the defensive side of the ball in the last month, making it difficult to see how they intend to slow down a dynamic Buffalo offense on Sunday night. The Bills are playing elite football right now and are deserving of being favored in this matchup as they look to secure the #2 seed in the AFC playoff picture and another AFC East division title.

Bengals (vs. Browns)

The Bengals probably do not deserve to be favored by a full touchdown given that neither team has anything to play for in Week 18, but they should still be able to get the job done. Cleveland is sitting Joe Flacco and quite a few other notable names in their season finale, and they have shown minimal interest in preparing to win this game, judging by their practice participation reports throughout the week. The Bengals are fighting to finish above the .500 mark, which has to count for something.

Packers (vs. Bears)

The Bears have already been eliminated from playoff contention, but that does not mean they won’t be extremely excited if they are able to keep their division rivals out of the playoffs with a win. Chicago ranks 4th in DVOA across the last month and has been, by all accounts, a truly formidable opponent during the second half of the regular season. Nevertheless, Jordan Love has played like an elite quarterback across the last two months and has the benefit of playing at home in Week 18. Green Bay is talented enough to find a way to win this contest in front of their home fans.

Buccaneers (vs. Panthers)

It’s never easy to win an NFL game, especially on the road, and even more so when facing an opponent that has absolutely no incentive to tank. The Panthers do not own their 1st round draft pick this upcoming summer, which means they have no selfish desire to lose this football game. Still, the Panthers have been in the same motivational seat 16 times this season and have only 2 wins, so it’s not as if they are all of a sudden going to be a difficult matchup. Baker Mayfield and company are coming off of a tough loss at home to the Saints in Week 17, but the team appears to be healthier heading into the season finale, which bodes well for their chances to secure a playoff berth with a win.

2023 Weekly Results

Week 1: 11-5
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 9-7
Week 4: 12-4
Week 5: 7-7
Week 6: 9-6
Week 7: 6-7
Week 8: 11-5
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 6-8
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 7-6
Week 14: 5-10
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 8-8
Week 17: 11-5

2022 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-5-1
Week 2: 8-8
Week 3: 13-3
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 11-5
Week 6: 8-6
Week 7: 7-7
Week 8: 12-3
Week 9: 10-3
Week 10: 7-7
Week 11: 11-3
Week 12: 11-5
Week 13: 8-6-1
Week 14: 8-5
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 8-8
Week 17: 10-5-1
Week 18: 9-8

2021 Weekly Results

Week 1: 10-6
Week 2: 10-6
Week 3: 15-1
Week 4: 9-7
Week 5: 13-3
Week 6: 9-5
Week 7: 10-3
Week 8: 8-7
Week 9: 9-5
Week 10: 5-8-1
Week 11: 8-7
Week 12: 7-8
Week 13: 11-3
Week 14: 12-2
Week 15: 11-5
Week 16: 11-5
Week 17: 13-3
Week 18: 10-6

Image Credit: Getty Images